Tag: apartment building investment cycle

The shape of the entire yield curve drives #CRE pricing, not single Treasury rate- CBRE Econometrics

Research out from CBRE Econometric Advisors shows that the typical risk-free benchmark rate, the 10 year Treasury, does not accurately reflect the cost of capital risks in asset pricing for commercial real estate. The whole yield curve or ‘term structure’ should be used instead. Highlights from their report:

  • Our research shows that it is not a single risk-free rate that drives asset pricing, but rather the entire term structure of interest rates (also referred to as the shape of the yield curve; we use these terms interchangeably). This term structure effect is so strong that relying upon a single benchmark rate in one’s analysis (as is typically done by analysts and investors) is inappropriate. We will demonstrate this below, using our empirical model of cap rates.

Cap Rates vs Yield Curve for Capartment building investment pricing

Top 5 Apartmentment Building Investment Markets for Rent Growth, by Asset Class.

In an update to our earlier update on top markets, Axiometrics has put out a report on the top 5 apartment building investment markets for rent growth by asset class.

Top 5 Class A Apartment Building Investment Markets for Rent Growth

San Francisco is rocking in class A and B, and in class C it’s….. San Francisco! Interestingly A and C properties there are showing rent growth of almost twenty percent while class B is just under ten percent. Any thoughts on why A and C are double the class B rent growth in SF? Note that 9.3% in class B still leads the US- Continue reading Top 5 Apartmentment Building Investment Markets for Rent Growth, by Asset Class.

The Cult of Stocks is dying, and at 0% rates bonds have nowhere to go but down Says Bill Gross. Time for apartment building investments?

Bill ‘The Bond King’ Gross, founder of PIMCO says that the long run of stocks outperforming the overall economy is done and that the only policy option left for the ‘advanced’ economies in the world is inflating their way out of debt. Since Inflation = Higher Interest Rates and rising rates reduces the value of existing bonds issued at lower (currently near zero) rates, they don’t look to good as a long term investment either. See his letter here PIMCO Investment Outlook

So what’s a saver or investor to do, especially those nearing or at retirement? Chase yields in emerging market bonds? Who would you trust for information about those issues? Have those economies really decoupled from the US and Europe? Where could you find a decent stream of income with inflation protection build in and appreciation potential on top of that?

Apartment building investments. As we’ve laid out previously apartment owners can benefit from even small increases in rents, have demographics and social trends on their side and new supply has been quite limited over the last decade (see here, here and here for the details). Does the prospect of high single digit current income with inflation protection and even appreciation potential warm your retirement spreadsheet?

apartment building investment, good current income with inflation protection and upside

In this example, raising rents $25 or about 3% increases the value and owner’s equity $190,000 or almost 12% plus the income goes up more than 9%. That is the power of apartment building investment. Notice that in this example that the building is nearly full, if we were to buy a building that had more vacancies we could have paid a lower price based on the lower Net Operating Income and we would have the opportunity to create even more value by improving the management to bring in more renters. That is why we like apartments.

When I talk about investing in apartments I am not talking about being in the landlord business, I am talking about being in the property owning business and one of the expenses we gladly pay is for professional property management. We’re not in the tenants, toilets and trash business; we hire the pros to handle that and our job is to manage the managers…. And reap the rewards. Find out how we invest in apartments and how you can too by contacting me at giovanni@ashworthpartners.com.

What’s not to like about the Seattle and Portland Apartment Building Investment Markets?

“Even compared to a healthy and expanding nationwide market, multifamily in the Pacific Northwest is seeing exceptionally strong gains. A growing renter population and accelerating job growth have helped solidify cities like Portland and Seattle as cornerstones of the apartment industry, and the positive trends show no sign of letting up.” So begins a glowing report in the latest digital edition of MHN Magazine (On page 22). What’s not to like about an article like that, especially one with a cover shot as beautiful as the one in this article? Below is just a portion of it and Photoshopped or not it is something to behold.

The glowing words and photos are accompanied with a pretty good looking chart too, showing the declining vacancy and rising rents in those two markets as well: Continue reading What’s not to like about the Seattle and Portland Apartment Building Investment Markets?

UPDATE: Top 10 US Submarkets for new apartment building units in the pipeline.

In May we posted an article Top 10 US Cities for new apartment building permits where Seattle came in sixth in new apartment building units permitted. Now a new list is out from Axiometrics with a breakdown by submarket and Seattle’s Downtown/Capitol Hill/Queen Anne submarket lands at number two with almost 4,000 units due to come on line in the near future.

Seattle number 2 in Top 10 most new apartment units in the pipeline

And that’s on top of nearly 6,000 units (3,500 in the last two years) that have already been delivered downtown since 2005. Plus there are several other hot neighborhoods such as Belltown and South Lake Union that Continue reading UPDATE: Top 10 US Submarkets for new apartment building units in the pipeline.

The split between Apartment Investors Creates Opportunity for Good Returns in Value-Add

Good article in Asset Management Quarterly Value Add Has Its Day talking about how investors have split since the Financial Meltdown in 2007 into a risk adverse group favoring mostly Class A apartment building investments in core markets and a more risk tolerant group seeking high returns by purchasing distressed debt.

For Apartment Builidng Investors Value Add Has Its Day

This has created an opportunity to generate good returns with investments in properties that need help of some kind. A few bullet points:

  • “It’s [The polarization] left this big open hole in the middle of the playing field for middle-risk, middle-return strategies, and it’s made the pricing on value add very attractive,”
  • “It should be an extremely desirable place to invest but you haven’t seen a lot of investors go there yet, which is why it’s such an interesting opportunity.”
  • buyers needn’t take on excessively risky scenarios in order to reap a handsome return of Continue reading The split between Apartment Investors Creates Opportunity for Good Returns in Value-Add

Even in Slow Jobs Climate Apartment Buildings Leasing Well- National Occupancy now over 94%

Just got an email from Jay Denton, Research VP at AXIOMetrics saying the national apartment building occupancy is 94.3%, a level not seen since 2006. Class A occupancy is at 95.5%, class B is 94.8% and class C is 92%. Also many submarkets around the country will see the first new supply of units this summer. Even so properties in Lease Up are doing well, averaging more than 20 move-ins a month. Further strength in the market is reflected by the fact that concessions are down to only 2-3 weeks in many markets.

Apartment Building Invesment Revenue Rents Occupancy

Jay also shared an interesting idea for a leading indicator of Continue reading Even in Slow Jobs Climate Apartment Buildings Leasing Well- National Occupancy now over 94%

Portland OR one of top US cities for job growth- Good for apartment building investments

Portland’s recovery in jobs driven by the return of tech and the lure of its funky coolness (see Portlandia) is noted in Kiplinger’s slide show on the 8 Cities with Surprising Job Growth where they’re expecting 130,000 new jobs in the next five years:

Portland to add 130,000 jobs- good for apartment building investment

“After devastating job losses in the recession, Portland has made a spectacular recovery, fueled by the tech mini-boom and the area’s attractiveness to young people. Anchored by Intel and its 16,000 employees, Portland will maintain its moniker as the Silicon Forest for its more than 1,200 high-tech firms, most of them small to medium-size.

High tech will continue to be the fastest-growing sector, but Continue reading Portland OR one of top US cities for job growth- Good for apartment building investments

Is now a good time to make Apartment Building Investments?

MHN Online has an interview with Dean Henry, president of Legacy Partners Residential, one of the big apartment building investment trusts (REITs). What I like is that he speaks in bullet points, just the way I think! Here’s my exec sum (in bullet points) of his bullet points:

Now is the time for Apartment Building Investment

“There are several important reasons why now is a great time to acquire existing multifamily assets. Let’s start with demand and supply: