The recovery has been good (What crash? good in a few) in some areas, seemingly non-existent in others and in many a slow grinding process that has yet been unable to return to pre-crash levels. The first thing that everyone should look at is job growth but Florida looked deeper into High Wage growth around the country:
A lot of the usual suspects when it comes to multifamily markets have moved pretty far into their cycles and if your home area is like ours ti’s getting pretty fully priced. With our value investor mindset that means we’re looking for the next markets to do well over the coming 10-20 years. As apartment building investors we say:
Back in February we posted an Axiometrics chart plotting the revenue growth vs. job growth in leading apartment investment markets in the US. They were out last week with an updated chart but not just in the way we might think since the numbers are Axiometrics’ 2013 forecasts for revenue and job growth updated through May this year. To me the real ‘update’ is that they reversed the axises on the chart and I think it makes more sense laid out this way:
Just got an email from Jay Denton, Research VP at AXIOMetrics saying the national apartment building occupancy is 94.3%, a level not seen since 2006. Class A occupancy is at 95.5%, class B is 94.8% and class C is 92%. Also many submarkets around the country will see the first new supply of units this summer. Even so properties in Lease Up are doing well, averaging more than 20 move-ins a month. Further strength in the market is reflected by the fact that concessions are down to only 2-3 weeks in many markets.
Portland’s recovery in jobs driven by the return of tech and the lure of its funky coolness (see Portlandia) is noted in Kiplinger’s slide show on the 8 Cities with Surprising Job Growth where they’re expecting 130,000 new jobs in the next five years:
“After devastating job losses in the recession, Portland has made a spectacular recovery, fueled by the tech mini-boom and the area’s attractiveness to young people. Anchored by Intel and its 16,000 employees, Portland will maintain its moniker as the Silicon Forest for its more than 1,200 high-tech firms, most of them small to medium-size.
As the next building cycle for the Portland area is still another year out, vacancy rates are expected to fall to historic lows across the metro. The overall vacancy rate will match the lowest on record at 2.7 percent, while the area’s lower-tier vacancy will fall to as low as 2 percent.
Marcus & Millichap notes that a lack of multifamily construction and the expansion of jobs in the region will be the prime factors behind the extraordinarily high rates of occupancy. Job growth is expected to rise 3.1 percent—from 20,500 positions created in 2011 to 31,000 positions created in 2012. Of particular significance will be the development of a new Intel facility, which is expected to create thousands of construction jobs and spur large demand for Class B and C apartments.