UPDATED: The Apartment Market Cycle Peak Is Here, It’s Just Not Evenly Distributed Yet

Apartment Building Investment Cycle with Expanded Peak
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The… Low Cap Rates. Click on image for full size.

Was quoted in a Multifamily Executive piece this week by Joe Bousquin Cap Rate Limbo: How Low Can They Go? discussing where we are in the apartment building investment cycle, whether multifamily cap rates could go any lower and how do you make a deal pencil in this environment. It’s a good quick read with apartment pros from around the country sharing their thoughts on how things stand. I really got a kick out of the Barbara Gaffen’s story about a Chicago property trading for $651,000 a unit.

Here are the rest of my comments:

The market cycle peak is here, it’s just not evenly distributed. Cycle tops (in the absence of a financial meltdown) tend to be rounded and therefore very hard to call. We’re focused Continue reading UPDATED: The Apartment Market Cycle Peak Is Here, It’s Just Not Evenly Distributed Yet

Who is buying all those properties and what does it mean for the apartment building investment cycle?

Mark Hickey of CoStar put out a piece looking at who was responsible for the near record $65.8B of apartment building investment in 2012. CoStar’s numbers show that private owners/developers did just about half of all acquisitions last year and institutions were in for 12%, both near their recent trends. REITs on the other hand increased their share by a third, responsible for 12% of sales volume last year.

Interestingly the sellers were pretty much the same groups, except REITs who were the largest net buyers last year.

Apartment Building Investment by REITs 2004 to 2012

Last year REITs raised 15x the equity they did in 2008 (and 20x the total capital). Up against pockets that deep Continue reading Who is buying all those properties and what does it mean for the apartment building investment cycle?

Top US Cities for Job and Apartment Building Investment Revenue Growth Charted. Axiometrics via MFE Mag

MFE Apartment Trends posted an Axiometrics chart of the top US cities for job growth and apartment revenue growth for 2013:

Apartment Building Investment Revenue and Job Growth 2013 Continue reading Top US Cities for Job and Apartment Building Investment Revenue Growth Charted. Axiometrics via MFE Mag