Are apartment builders better predictors of the Apartment Building Investment Cycle? Based on the latest cycle at least (a sample of one, admittedly) it appears that they are.
On the chart above the blue line represents the NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which began falling in the 3rd quarter of 2005 and fell for four straight Continue reading Is Builder Sentiment a Better Predictor of the Apartment Investment Cycle?
A lot of the usual suspects when it comes to multifamily markets have moved pretty far into their cycles and if your home area is like ours ti’s getting pretty fully priced. With our value investor mindset that means we’re looking for the next markets to do well over the coming 10-20 years. As apartment building investors we say:
Fortunately two different sources provided data and maps to answer Jerry’s demand. The first is from the NAHB (the National Association of Home Builders) in an Eye On Housing piece called Uneven Aging. The report actually has two maps, the first showing the 2000 to 2010 growth in the Continue reading Skate to where the apartment building investment puck is going: Top US markets for future population and job growth.
The NAHB has a piece out called Producer Prices in March – Building Materials Prices Approaching Housing Boom Highs talking about how far gypsum (main ingredient in drywall +18%), softwood lumber (2x4s, 2x6s, etc. +30%) and chipboard (oriented strand board and waferboard which have replaced plywood, joists and beams in many applications +68%) prices have risen in the last year, the chart tells the story:
Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk has a piece showing the longer term price history for Random Length Lumber (2x4s only, both cash and futures) and a link to a pretty depressing Vancouver Sun article on pine beetle devastation in BC (Spoiler alert: the Continue reading Apartment Building Replacement Costs Rising: lumber back to housing boom highs, growing labor shortages.
In their latest apartment building permitting report Axiometrics says: “permitting increased 44.3% or 84,308 units from the January 2012 figure of 274,640 units.” This is very near the long term average of 280,000 units, see the chart:
Note that single family permits are still Continue reading Apartment Building Permits Rise to Long-term Average while Vacancy Index Remains Low
The NAHB was out with their weekly Eye on Housing report and this week’s edition took a look at the Q3 SOMA data from the Census Bureau. SOMA stands for Survey of Market Absorption of Apartments and overall things are looking pretty positive for developers. One interesting chart they had showed the types of properties that were being built since 2005:
Condos and co-op deliveries are Continue reading SOMA (Survey of Market Absorption of Apartments) charted by apartment type from the Census Bureau
The NAHB is out this morning with a chart that gives some perspective on apartment building investment starts. The Census Bureau reported 285,000 unit starts in October for 5+ unit buildings. At that rate it looks like we’re just returning to what was a sustainable level of starts in the ’97-’06 period.
While developers tend to overshoot the sustainable level (which is where the apartment building investment cycle comes from) the hope is that Continue reading Some perspective on New Apartment Building Unit Starts: Census Bureau’s stats charted by the NAHB