Back in March I posted a FRED chart that Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk shared tracking a set of data that pretty reliably coincides with recessions. Even better is that in almost fifty years of data there have been only two false positives which brings us to a very interesting point. First, here’s the chart as it appeared when I posted back in March:
![Smooth sailing for apartment building investment? FRED Recession Probabilities March 2013](http://ashworthpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/FRED-Recession-Probabilities-March-2013.png)
Next let’s look in more detail at those false positives:
![Recession Probabilities and Apartment building investment FRED Recession Probabilities March Detail](http://ashworthpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/FRED-Recession-Probabilities-March-Detail1.png)
This is what I like about this data series: Even if we set the bar as low as 5%, there have only been two instances Continue reading Update on Recession Probability: Rough Seas Ahead?