Is Builder Sentiment a Better Predictor of the Apartment Investment Cycle?

Builders Predict the Apartment Cycle

Are apartment builders better predictors of the Apartment Building Investment Cycle? Based on the latest cycle at least (a sample of one, admittedly) it appears that they are.

On the chart above the blue line represents the NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which began falling in the 3rd quarter of 2005 and fell for four straight Continue reading Is Builder Sentiment a Better Predictor of the Apartment Investment Cycle?

Apartment Financing Hits An Air Pocket in Latest NMHC Survey

Apartment Building Investment Lending Conditions July 2015

The National Multifamily Housing Council’s NMHC Quarterly Survey is out now and three of the four categories held fairly steady but the availability of  debt financing dropped twenty five points from sixty to thirty five. A reading below fifty indicates worsening conditions and the report on the survey said that with Continue reading Apartment Financing Hits An Air Pocket in Latest NMHC Survey

CBRE Research: Since 2010 population shifting towards urban but apartment building construction is outpacing growth in

… A number of major metros

CBRE Econometrics is out with a new report showing population growth trends in major US metros has shifted towards urban centers since 2010 but apartment building investors have been keeping pace (or exceeding it) with new construction.  Author Gleb Nechayev, Senior Managing Economist lays it out nicely in a series of charts:

First Population Growth Average Change 2000- 2010

Population Growth in major Apartment Markets 2000 t0 2010
source: CBRE Econometrics

Raleigh is the only metro with significant urban vs. suburban population growth. Note that one-county metros such as Continue reading CBRE Research: Since 2010 population shifting towards urban but apartment building construction is outpacing growth in

New Stats from HUD/Census apartment building finance survey

HUD and the Census Bureau released the latest version of the Rental Housing Finance Survey. The “Survey fills an important gap in our understanding of who owns multifamily rental housing – mostly individuals, not large companies — and how multifamily rental housing is financed, especially as the structure of finance is changing.  In light of recent changes in the availability of capital for rental housing, the Rental Housing Finance Survey also provides important insight about the financial health and stability of multifamily housing properties.” said Erika Poethig, HUD’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy Development.

2012 Rental Housing Finance Survey

This is one table from the xls on the Census Bureau’s site here. Note the tabs on the bottom which have the data broken out by different types.

A few bullet points from HUD’s release linked at the top of the post:

Some perspective on New Apartment Building Unit Starts: Census Bureau’s stats charted by the NAHB

The NAHB is out this morning with a chart that gives some perspective on apartment building investment starts. The Census Bureau reported 285,000 unit starts in October for 5+ unit buildings. At that rate it looks like we’re just returning to what was a sustainable level of starts in the ’97-’06 period.

Apartment Building Investment Starts Returning to Sustainable Level
Census Bureau data plotted by the NAHB

While developers tend to overshoot the sustainable level (which is where the apartment building investment cycle comes from) the hope is that Continue reading Some perspective on New Apartment Building Unit Starts: Census Bureau’s stats charted by the NAHB