CBRE Research: Since 2010 population shifting towards urban but apartment building construction is outpacing growth in

… A number of major metros

CBRE Econometrics is out with a new report showing population growth trends in major US metros has shifted towards urban centers since 2010 but apartment building investors have been keeping pace (or exceeding it) with new construction.  Author Gleb Nechayev, Senior Managing Economist lays it out nicely in a series of charts:

First Population Growth Average Change 2000- 2010

Population Growth in major Apartment Markets 2000 t0 2010
source: CBRE Econometrics

Raleigh is the only metro with significant urban vs. suburban population growth. Note that one-county metros such as Los Angeles, Miami, Orange County, Riverside, San Diego, and Phoenix are not included on the chart.

Now take a look at the same population growth since 2010 and a very different trend arises:

Population growth in major apartment markets 2010 to present

Everyone wants to go ‘Downtown’ it seems.

Smelling opportunity? As the report puts it: “Demand is only part of the story, however: developers have taken notice of the trend, and that has led to higher levels of construction activity in many central counties. The chart below compares average annual population growth in the 20 central counties that have gained share in metro population with the rates of multi-housing permits issuance since 2010. It turns out that on average for this group, population growth and multi-housing permits actually moved in tandem, at a rate of 1.6% per year.”

Population Growth vs. New Apartment Building Permits 2010 to present

Whoa Raleigh! They are apparently using the ‘Field of Dreams’ development strategy there.

How do the charts jibe with your on the ground feel for your metro? There is much more detail in the CBRE Report. Note that you may have to register (free) to access their reports.

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