Quote: “[A] very active market that continues to give strong weighting to underlying land value and potential future use, even if this use is far off in the future.” – James Glen, VP, Colliers Vancouver, BC [Emphasis mine]
Any time you see future and potential in the same sentence referring to real estate, watch out…
Oh and another sign is when the average cap rate for a low-rise apartment deal is 3% while high-rises are at 2.5! Just for reference, a 2.5 cap is the equivalent of a 40x multiple (aka PE or Price Earnings Ratio) on a stock meaning that it would take 40 years of earnings (NOI in the case of real estate) to repay the purchase price and that is definitely “far off in the future“.
You can see all the Canadian Cap Rate reports from Colliers here: Canada Cap Rate Report Q1 2017
Happy summer everyone-
P.S. If you’d like a handy chart for converting Cap Rates to Earnings Multiples shoot me a message with Cap Rates to Earnings in the subject line.
When it comes to apartment building investing one has to consider homeownership as competition for ‘our’ residents. But now in a post that’s part of his series on where the housing market stands today, Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture blog has this to say:
“There are many good reasons to believe that the 5.5 million foreclosures we have so far brings us only to the 5th inning of this real estate cycle. We are, in my best guess, barely halfway through the full course of foreclosures. By the time this entire unwind is complete, the United States may end up with a total of 8-10 million foreclosures.
Therein lay the Psychology factor. Once we begin to see an increase in foreclosures, the data is going to be far less accommodating. Monthly prices start falling, fear levels rise, and a viscous cycle could begin. Consider the recent college grads, who typically form each wave of first time buyers. From their perspectives, this whole housing thing must seem absurd. Their observations about home ownership is not the American Dream, but rather, a nightmare. Yale professor Robert Shiller worries that we have lost an entire generation of potential home buyers.” [Emphasis mine] BTW, Shiller is co-author of the Case-Shiller index, a measure of the state of the housing market. Continue reading Attention apartment investors: An entire generation has lost its interest in homeownership.
Apartment Building Investing Requires Diligent Due Diligence
Nowhere is getting your ducks in a row more important than in apartment building investing. See this quick MFE Mag article for tips from seasoned pros: Diligence Gut Check
The article covers topics like these:
- How’s the Weather Out There?
- The Case of Misplaced Ownership
- Over the Income Threshold
- Just an Accounting Mishap