Report on the state of apartment building investment markets from the good folks at Joseph Bernard Investment Real Estate in Portland:
Continued positive multifamily demand fundamentals and ready access to capital at attractive rates is fueling a surge in new apartment development, according to industry executives.
Several hundred senior-level apartment executives gathered in Scottsdale, AZ, last week for National Multi Housing Council’s (NMHC) Apartment Strategies/Finance Conference and Spring Board of Directors Meeting. The following is the NMHC’s summary of what was discussed.
Continued low levels of new supply have led to a big bounce-back in rents as demand outpaces new construction. According to one panel of apartment executives, the new supply shortfall may be larger than once thought — as many as 700,000 to 1 million units — because many of the apartments built in recent years have been in the affordable, rather than market-rate, section of the market. Moreover, much of the current apartment stock dates back to the 1970s and is becoming obsolete, creating additional demand for new supply.
Select areas have seen such large upticks in the number of planned and under construction units that could turn into hot spots for potential overbuilding. In particular, certain submarkets of Phoenix, Seattle and Washington, D.C., appear somewhat at risk.
But, overall, new completions are still a very low percentage of total inventory.
Money Flowing for Multifamily
There is a wall of private capital that wants into the multifamily space. More than 250 private equity funds currently are Continue reading Phoenix, Seattle and Washington, DC apartment markets at risk of overbuilding says NMHC panel
The recovery from the ‘Great Recession’ has been anything but slow for apartment building investment. During the recession many of the prime renters (age 20 t0 34) were hit hard by unemployment and m0ved back in with their parents. Others ‘bundled up’ by moving in with their friends.
“Sometime between 2010 and 2011 the number of doubled-up households started to decrease. This reversal released a great deal of pent-up demand for apartments. A greater number of people sharing multi-bedroom apartment units, as well as a greater number of young adults living at home, were able to move out and rent their own units. Moreover, these young adults largely did not purchase homes.”
After being hit hard by the recession, younger workers have benefited more than others from the recovery in hiring. Since the bottom in late 2009/10, the prime age cohort for rental apartments (ages of 20 and 34) has a net gain of more than 1.5 million jobs. This has enabled many of these young workers to move into their own apartments.
But will it continue?
“The 2010 decennial census estimates that roughly Continue reading Apartment building owners benefit from prime renter group ‘unbundling’, driving rents and occupancy.
1) The availability of attractive financing. Plus, the spread between fixed-rate financing and actual year one cap rates is certainly the widest that it’s been in recent history, perhaps ever. (There’s rumor that there was a bigger spread during the Roman Empire, but that may just be an old wives’ tale.)
From a macro perspective, the spreads between the treasury indexes and the premium on multifamily interest rates will almost certainly widen in the near term, but cap rates should remain stable in Class-C properties. They will probably continue to compress to a certain degree for Class-B assets.
2) Job growth Continue reading Two Key Factors for Apartment Building Investment Growth.
See the video here: http://bit.ly/JpqMck Sorry, couldn’t figure out how to load their video directly into this post. Any suggestions? Thanks.
As the next building cycle for the Portland area is still another year out, vacancy rates are expected to fall to historic lows across the metro. The overall vacancy rate will match the lowest on record at 2.7 percent, while the area’s lower-tier vacancy will fall to as low as 2 percent.
Marcus & Millichap notes that a lack of multifamily construction and the expansion of jobs in the region will be the prime factors behind the extraordinarily high rates of occupancy. Job growth is expected to rise 3.1 percent—from 20,500 positions created in 2011 to 31,000 positions created in 2012. Of particular significance will be the development of a new Intel facility, which is expected to create thousands of construction jobs and spur large demand for Class B and C apartments.
Cap rates for trophy buildings are likely to average in the high 4-percent range, with Class A and B assets in Continue reading Portland Apartment Market to add 31,000 jobs this year, vacancy to fall below 3%.
Apartment building investment buoyed by job growth in Denver
Video via Property Management Insider: http://youtu.be/uFjpYSbVdRg
Apartment fundamentals are strong essentially across the board in Denver, which ranked among the nation’s best with year-over-year rent growth of 6.5%
Apartments are a little easier to come by in the Portland area, but that’s not slowing down rent increases across much of the market.
According to the Metro Multifamily Housing Association which released its latest survey Wednesday:
- Vacancy across the metro area grew to 3.72% from 3.34% late last year.
- Rents climbed 3% in the same period, reaching $1 a square foot per month across the metro area.
- Average two-bedroom unit now rents for $771, up $28 a month compared with six months earlier.
The Portland area has one of the lowest Continue reading Portland Apartment Building Market: occupancy drops but rents still rising according to report
Reis puts out these really handy one page reports with all the major QoQ changes broken out by sub-market. Here’s the latest on Portland, OR:
Click on the image above to go to a list of markets then select Continue reading Handy Apartment Building Investment Market Reports- interactive one-pagers from Reis Reports.
See the report here: http://bit.ly/xm8uUG