Don’t worry, be happy. US recession chances ‘smoothed’ away.

Three weeks ago we posted an update on the probability of recession that had jumped up into the warning zone: Update on Recession Probability: Rough Seas Ahead? The chart from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED data looked like this:

US recession warning from St. Louis Fed

Only twice in the last forty five years has the level gotten this high without a recession following soon after. The chart is usually updated only once a month but I check it every week, especially since it had risen. When I checked this week I got quite a shock because the high levels I had seen earlier had disappeared:

Chances of US recession August 2013

WT…? It turns out that the ‘Smoothed’ in the chart title: “Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N)” means that the data is subject to change based on Continue reading Don’t worry, be happy. US recession chances ‘smoothed’ away.

The Recession Probability Chart, A New Coincident Indicator?

Quick link to a very interesting chart Bill McBride put up over at Calculated Risk:

Chance of Recession?
Source: FRED. Note: We added the red and green lines (at 80 and 20 on chart) to highlight points made in the article.

 

The chart is from the St. Louis Fed’s Fred database which I’ve highlighted and you can find the original here.  According to U of O Professor Jeremy Piger: “Historically, three consecutive Continue reading The Recession Probability Chart, A New Coincident Indicator?