The 10 year apartment building investment loan rate we track has returned to its old boundary of four and a half percent despite Treasuries in the two and teens again at the end of November. On the 28th the T10 was within 1pb of the mid-October Massacre low of 2.17. Something had to give for the loan rate to get back to the 4.5% range and it was the spread which jumped above 2.25 last week for the first time since February:
The spread has gone from the Massacre low of 1.93 to 2.28, a 35bp climb in only seven weeks. Meanwhile the ULI <60%LTV last week was 3bps below its mid-October low, tracking the Treasury with a consistent spread of 1.38 in four of the last five weeks.
It’s interesting that the spread plunged Continue reading Spreads Widen on 10 Year Apartment Investment Loan Rate, Trend or Seasonal?
Vince Farrell of Soleil Securities Group sent me his take on what key credit spreads are indicating about the financial landscape and economic prospects. For a little background, a ‘spread’ is trader talk for the difference between two financial instruments, in this case the interest rates offered different debt instruments. As with most spreads these have a historical ‘normal’ range and their trend away from or back towards normal are used to measure optimism or pessimism in hearts and minds of those who create or invest in the referenced instruments.
Vince finds that while most of the credit spreads he follows are wide by historical norms, they are narrowing and the trends are positive for the credit markets and eventually the economy. Here are his comments: Continue reading Credit Rate Spreads as Indicators