The Fed used a hypothetical family with $126,400 in 2007 to prove that point. In 2010, that same family’s net worth dropped to $77,300. Median family income also fell—from $49,600 in 2007 to $45,800 in 2010. The number comes from the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances, due out this coming Monday.”
MHN Online has an interview with Dean Henry, president of Legacy Partners Residential, one of the big apartment building investment trusts (REITs). What I like is that he speaks in bullet points, just the way I think! Here’s my exec sum (in bullet points) of his bullet points:
“There are several important reasons why now is a great time to acquire existing multifamily assets. Let’s start with demand and supply:
The U.S. population is increasing by approximately 3 million people per year, plus the legal immigrants who enter the country, and 75 to 85 percent of whom rent rather than buy.
Apartment building investments are a top choice according to Gary Shilling, one of the world’s foremost economic forecasters, a long-time Forbes columnist, publisher of Insight Newsletter with his editor Fred Rossi, and author of “The Age of Deleveraging,” (http://amzn.to/L9hm7W on Amazon) the perfect playbook for America’s new Age of Austerity.
Rental apartments. A huge inventory still overhangs the housing market as prices continue falling. The American dream of homeownership may be history. Renting is the affordable option. And with REIT prices running high, “direct ownership of rental apartments may still be attractive.”
See the whole post for more ideas for investing in these turbulent times.
The recovery from the ‘Great Recession’ has been anything but slow for apartment building investment. During the recession many of the prime renters (age 20 t0 34) were hit hard by unemployment and m0ved back in with their parents. Others ‘bundled up’ by moving in with their friends.
“Sometime between 2010 and 2011 the number of doubled-up households started to decrease. This reversal released a great deal of pent-up demand for apartments. A greater number of people sharing multi-bedroom apartment units, as well as a greater number of young adults living at home, were able to move out and rent their own units. Moreover, these young adults largely did not purchase homes.”
After being hit hard by the recession, younger workers have benefited more than others from the recovery in hiring. Since the bottom in late 2009/10, the prime age cohort for rental apartments (ages of 20 and 34) has a net gain of more than 1.5 million jobs. This has enabled many of these young workers to move into their own apartments.
A very interesting report on apartment building investment posted on the Freddie Mac website discussing Current Multifamily Values & Cap Rates In Historical Context explores where the market is today and where it is likely to be in five years under a number of different interest rate scenarios. Freddie doesn’t do loans smaller than $5 million (implying a minimum deal size of $6.6-7 million) and many of their borrowers are large institutional investors but the forecasting methods and valuation models they use are applicable to apartment building investing on any scale.
M&M tracks 40 metro apartment investment markets and delivers quarterly reports on occupancy, rents, absorption, new construction and permits (See list below). You may have to register with them to access the reports.
As the next building cycle for the Portland area is still another year out, vacancy rates are expected to fall to historic lows across the metro. The overall vacancy rate will match the lowest on record at 2.7 percent, while the area’s lower-tier vacancy will fall to as low as 2 percent.
Marcus & Millichap notes that a lack of multifamily construction and the expansion of jobs in the region will be the prime factors behind the extraordinarily high rates of occupancy. Job growth is expected to rise 3.1 percent—from 20,500 positions created in 2011 to 31,000 positions created in 2012. Of particular significance will be the development of a new Intel facility, which is expected to create thousands of construction jobs and spur large demand for Class B and C apartments.
Marcus & Millichap Q1 call on the apartment building investment climate this morning:
Year over year manufacturing jobs grew 238k. Manufacturing = 20% of GDP but gets no press, where as single family housing < 2% gets all the coverage.
There is a historic % of 18-34 Y/Os still living ‘with the parents’ but they are also getting a larger proportion of the new jobs. (See chart) Good for apartment building investors as these people typically become renters when they do move out.
A props in primary (coastal) markets seeing compressed cap rates; most on the call (including me) thought they were a little frothy.