Quick link to a very interesting chart Bill McBride put up over at Calculated Risk:
The chart is from the St. Louis Fed’s Fred database which I’ve highlighted and you can find the original here. According to U of O Professor Jeremy Piger: “Historically, three consecutive Continue reading The Recession Probability Chart, A New Coincident Indicator?
Tom Barrack of Colony Capital on what’s really happening in US real estate from an investor’s perspective. The clearest, most cogent look at the state of commercial, multifamily and single family markets today and where the opportunities are. The first five and a half minutes is about Europe and the bottom line there is don’t but after that it is all gold. If Tom wanted to be one of those real estate ‘gurus’ he could package this video with a big notebook and some advertising and sell it for $10,000- and it would be better than any of the other stuff out there. And you get it for free. I’ve watched three times and get an extra little nugget each time.
The big takeaway for me is that (temporarily at least) Continue reading The State of US Commercial Real Estate, Single Family and Apartment Building Investment Markets. By Tom Barrack, Colony Capital
Two quick links- you decide. From the Seattle Times: Urban Land Institute finds Seattle among most attractive real-estate markets and from Dupre + Scott ( The leading Seattle area apartment market research firm): Apartment development pipeline (video)
When I see this:
Yes the Fed is fighting DEflation but it sure doesn’t feel like deflation when we go to the store or pull up to the gas pump. While I am glad that Ben is battling the correct demon, it would be very helpful to know what ‘living inflation’ is doing to or for our apartment residents. Especially since on their National Apartment web conference earlier this week Reis said that in many of their largest 79 markets class B & C owners ability to raise rents has or soon will run into the 35% of income barrier. Watching what the costs of rent, food and beverages, energy and medical expenses are doing to our residents’ pocketbooks could guide us in raising rents. Today Pragmatic Capitalism had a very interesting piece on just that.
Right now ‘Family Inflation’ is in the 2% range but you can see that last year it was as high as 7% and that it’s quite volatile. Most of that feels like it could be from rising fuel costs but let’s take a look to see if we can find out what’s really going on. Continue reading A Family Inflation Gauge for Everyday Americans; rent, food, energy, medical costs, education and childcare.
Good presentation on the current national apartment building investment sector from Marcus & Millichap. New supply remains constricted except for a few cities, they didn’t mention any names *cough Seattle cough* but if you’re in one of them and tracking the pipeline it’s easy to read between the lines.
Another interesting trend is that Continue reading Good News and News: Apartment Q3 update web conference replay now posted from Marcus & Millichap
Good charts on long term returns in this piece from Glenn R Mueller, PhD.:
I recently met with my financial advisor to “rebalance” my … retirement portfolio. Based on my “age and stage of life” his allocation model showed a 50% bond allocation. I laughed and asked him if the company allocation model assumed interest rates would rise over the next 10 years? His answer was “yes- of course.” I showed him the graph below which shows lower than average TOTAL returns in a rising interest rate environment and he checked his long-term data and found that bond holders between 1953 and 1980 had actually lost money. We all know that as interest rates rise, bond values decline and thus the total return can be small or negative. Not to mention that a 10-year treasury at 1.5% is below expected inflation and thus a NEGATIVE REAL RETURN. He agreed that a bond allocation did not make much sense, but since my investor profile was conservative what was the alternative?
Dr. Mueller is Continue reading What do I do with my retirement money, one investor’s answer (with charts). Think apartment building investment-
Mark Hanson of MHanson Advisors, researchers and strategists focused on North American and Australian real estate and finance markets, has a very good piece out questioning the recent calls of a housing bottom. His research shows that 20-30 million current homeowners (half the market) either cannot sell and net enough for a downpayment on another house or could not qualify for a new mortgage if they did have a downpayment.
He also charts that out in relation to the over all supply:
Here’s Mark’s breakout of the zombies:
1) “Effective” Negative Equity – 25 million borrowers / houses. These borrowers are dead to the housing market, as they don’t have the equity to pay a Realtor 6% to sell and put 20% down on a new house. They were once the most active participants, the repeat buyers. Now they are “zombie homeowners”.
2) Impaired Credit – 28 million borrowers. These are borrowers with Continue reading Zombie homeowners are 50% of the single family move up market and they can’t buy. Good for Apartment Building Investment?
Bill ‘The Bond King’ Gross, founder of PIMCO says that the long run of stocks outperforming the overall economy is done and that the only policy option left for the ‘advanced’ economies in the world is inflating their way out of debt. Since Inflation = Higher Interest Rates and rising rates reduces the value of existing bonds issued at lower (currently near zero) rates, they don’t look to good as a long term investment either. See his letter here PIMCO Investment Outlook
So what’s a saver or investor to do, especially those nearing or at retirement? Chase yields in emerging market bonds? Who would you trust for information about those issues? Have those economies really decoupled from the US and Europe? Where could you find a decent stream of income with inflation protection build in and appreciation potential on top of that?
Apartment building investments. As we’ve laid out previously apartment owners can benefit from even small increases in rents, have demographics and social trends on their side and new supply has been quite limited over the last decade (see here, here and here for the details). Does the prospect of high single digit current income with inflation protection and even appreciation potential warm your retirement spreadsheet?
In this example, raising rents $25 or about 3% increases the value and owner’s equity $190,000 or almost 12% plus the income goes up more than 9%. That is the power of apartment building investment. Notice that in this example that the building is nearly full, if we were to buy a building that had more vacancies we could have paid a lower price based on the lower Net Operating Income and we would have the opportunity to create even more value by improving the management to bring in more renters. That is why we like apartments.
When I talk about investing in apartments I am not talking about being in the landlord business, I am talking about being in the property owning business and one of the expenses we gladly pay is for professional property management. We’re not in the tenants, toilets and trash business; we hire the pros to handle that and our job is to manage the managers…. And reap the rewards. Find out how we invest in apartments and how you can too by contacting me at giovanni@ashworthpartners.com.
Home prices have crashed. Interest rates are at all-time lows. If you’re in the market to buy, homes are more affordable than they’ve been in years. Or are they?
From a WSJ report posted by Motley Fool:
The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22% last year on properties purchased through conventional mortgages. … That percentage doubled in three years and represents the highest median down payment since the data were first tracked in 1997.
Up 22%! yowza! More from MF:
The average home in America now sells for $272,000, so a 20% down payment totals about $55,000. The median household net worth, meanwhile, was $67,000 in 2010, suggesting the average homeowner needs to tie up a tremendous amount of their net worth in a down payment. Can you really Continue reading The secret about home ‘affordability’ they don’t want you to know- Good for Apartment Building Investment
In their June 2012 Economic Update, Freddie Mac says: “Over the year ending March 2012, an additional 1.5 million households moved into rental housing. That’s a 4 percent increase in renter-occupied dwellings in a single year.”
The increase in apartment demand has helped to enhance property values, on average up about 25 percent during the past two years from their trough during the first quarter of 2010…
See the whole report here: Rental Markets: A Sign of Strength
