commercial property | Ashworth Partners

The shape of the entire yield curve drives #CRE pricing, not single Treasury rate- CBRE Econometrics

Research out from CBRE Econometric Advisors shows that the typical risk-free benchmark rate, the 10 year Treasury, does not accurately reflect the cost of capital risks in asset pricing for commercial real estate. The whole yield curve or ‘term structure’ should be used instead. Highlights from their report:

Our research shows that it is not a single risk-free rate that drives asset pricing, but rather the entire term structure of interest rates (also referred to as the shape of the yield curve; we use these terms interchangeably). This term structure effect is so strong that relying upon a single benchmark rate in one’s analysis (as is typically done by analysts and investors) is inappropriate. We will demonstrate this below, using our empirical model of cap rates.

Secondly, the shape of the yield curve affects investors’ expectations of future interest rates and therefore their investment and pricing decisions. For example, during periods with a flat yield curve, investors may reasonably expect the term structure to revert to its long-run value, with the resulting Continue reading The shape of the entire yield curve drives #CRE pricing, not single Treasury rate- CBRE Econometrics

The One Shoe That Didn’t Drop in The Financial Collapse- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities. #CRE

Heidi N. Moore was talking with a investor who specializes in buying distressed commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and I was reminded of something Warren Buffett said back in 2007:

“When people start dropping shoes you really don’t know whether they’re a one-legged guy or a centipede.”

The investor was saying that the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been under the same pressure as the housing market but the CRE market hasn’t crashed. Why hasn’t that shoe dropped… and why won’t it?

The investor said that CRE was “rife with all the same corruption as the housing market: banks didn’t do their homework before signing loans, ratings agencies were overly generous in classifying weak loans as strong, but when it came [time] to mark down the value of the struggling commercial real-estate loans, many banks simply refused. They inflated the values of the loans to make their balance sheets look good.” [And therefore could keep all their bailout funds at work speculating in derivatives and jacking their bonuses instead of being set aside to cover losses.]

There are two other reasons that the CRE market and the CMBS tied to it didn’t crash: 0% interest rates, which means commercial borrowers weren’t punished with higher interest payments; and more importantly Continue reading The One Shoe That Didn’t Drop in The Financial Collapse- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities. #CRE

Q3 Apartment Building Investment Reports Now Available From Marcus & Millichap

M&M covers 39 major apartment building investment markets in the US and have just published their Q3 reports. Here’s a list of the metros they cover:

They also provide snapshots of the Office, Industrial, Retail and Self-storage sectors in many of those markets, accessible from the tabs on the page. Note this information requires registration at the website to view.

UPDATE: Top 10 US Submarkets for new apartment building units in the pipeline.

In May we posted an article Top 10 US Cities for new apartment building permits where Seattle came in sixth in new apartment building units permitted. Now a new list is out from Axiometrics with a breakdown by submarket and Seattle’s Downtown/Capitol Hill/Queen Anne submarket lands at number two with almost 4,000 units due to come on line in the near future.

And that’s on top of nearly 6,000 units (3,500 in the last two years) that have already been delivered downtown since 2005. Plus there are several other hot neighborhoods such as Belltown and South Lake Union that Continue reading UPDATE: Top 10 US Submarkets for new apartment building units in the pipeline.

The split between Apartment Investors Creates Opportunity for Good Returns in Value-Add

Good article in Asset Management Quarterly Value Add Has Its Day talking about how investors have split since the Financial Meltdown in 2007 into a risk adverse group favoring mostly Class A apartment building investments in core markets and a more risk tolerant group seeking high returns by purchasing distressed debt.

This has created an opportunity to generate good returns with investments in properties that need help of some kind. A few bullet points:

“It’s [The polarization] left this big open hole in the middle of the playing field for middle-risk, middle-return strategies, and it’s made the pricing on value add very attractive,”
“It should be an extremely desirable place to invest but you haven’t seen a lot of investors go there yet, which is why it’s such an interesting opportunity.”
buyers needn’t take on excessively risky scenarios in order to reap a handsome return of Continue reading The split between Apartment Investors Creates Opportunity for Good Returns in Value-Add

Is Bellevue’s Spring District The Next South Lake Union? Apartment developers are saying yes-

A piece in the Seattle Real Estate BisNow is talking about the new mixed use development that will be starting up around the planned light rail station in the Bel-Red area. The area has now got a fancy new name too: The Spring District. Kevin Wallace, Pres. of Wallace properties compares it to South Lake Union (only with better, ok, less worse traffic if you ask me).

Mixed Use Development in Bellevue's Spring District

Also mentioned that downtown Bellevue’s office space is just a couple big tenants short of being full, full of tech tenants including game developers that is.

Updated CRE and Apartment Market Cycle Charts Now Posted by Glenn Mueller at Dividend Capital

Dr. Mueller is one of the leading researchers on the commercial and apartment building investment cycle but I have big questions about Seattle being placed at the bottom of the cycle in his latest Cycle Monitor report. According to MPF Research there currently are 6,000 new units under construction in Seattle (see here) and Essex Property Trust estimates that there will be 10,000 units coming on line in the next three years (see here). In fact the NMHC lists Seattle as one of three US markets in danger of overbuilding (see here).

Reis Reports is showing that while rents are up about 1% QoQ in Q1 2012, vacancy is starting Continue reading Updated CRE and Apartment Market Cycle Charts Now Posted by Glenn Mueller at Dividend Capital

Are we overbuilding multifamily already? Or just the wrong kind? Research from CBRE Econometrics

At a Seattle apartment building investment conference recently one of the main speakers was saying that everyone who’d ever held a hammer, and their brother, was trying to build apartments in that market. That really struck a nerve in my market cycle conscious brain and was looking to get some perspective on that when a CBRE piece crossed my desk with this chart on it:

So while new unit construction starts are up significantly from the 2009 lows they are still well below the 89-08 average of about 250k. More importantly in relation to demographics we will be seeing increasing demand from growth in two of the prime renter groups, my exec sum from the piece below: Continue reading Are we overbuilding multifamily already? Or just the wrong kind? Research from CBRE Econometrics

Portland Apartment Building Market: occupancy drops but rents still rising according to report

Apartments are a little easier to come by in the Portland area, but that’s not slowing down rent increases across much of the market.
According to the Metro Multifamily Housing Association which released its latest survey Wednesday:

Vacancy across the metro area grew to 3.72% from 3.34% late last year.
Rents climbed 3% in the same period, reaching $1 a square foot per month across the metro area.
Average two-bedroom unit now rents for $771, up $28 a month compared with six months earlier.

The Portland area has one of the lowest Continue reading Portland Apartment Building Market: occupancy drops but rents still rising according to report

Rising rates won’t necessarily lead to higher cap rates on CRE, apartment building investments. CBRE debt & equity podcast.

Great podcast on the financing market for CRE and apartment building investment with a look at potential impacts from events around the world.

“In this Global In-Sights podcast, Spencer Levy, Executive Managing Director for CBRE Capital Markets, shares his view on the commercial real estate debt and equity finance markets. What are current key sources of capital, what is the current pricing of CRE debt, and what are expectations going forward? Are there key sectors that are attracting most of the capital flows? What are expectations for interest rates and how are investors underwriting the possibility of an interest rate spike in the next 2 to 3 years? What are some of the key positive trends that we suggest our clients look out for when selecting markets in which to invest?”

Podcast Link

A few bullet points: Continue reading Rising rates won’t necessarily lead to higher cap rates on CRE, apartment building investments. CBRE debt & equity podcast.