The Urban Land Institute’s April Real Estate Business Barometer reports that apartment building investment sales were strong enough to pull the entire sector up from last month’s slump while CRE prices are at four year highs. Condominium sales are also at a 5-1/2 year high with strongly increasing prices.
James Montier, who works at the intersection of value investing and behavioral investing (Author of ‘The Little Book of Behavioral Investing’ http://amzn.to/X9Olzc on Amazon among others) has a great quote in his latest white paper published by GMO Global Investment Management entitled “The 13th Labour of Hercules:Capital Preservation in the Age of Financial Repression” Note that you may have to register at the site (free).
His paper discusses the effects of financial repression on portfolio stock and bond allocations and by implication the effects on real estate and particularly apartment building investments. Financial repression is the term used to describe central bank’s strategies for forcing interest rates to zero or negative to spur investment and spending at the expense of saving. Take it away James:
William McChesney Martin was the longest-serving Federal Reserve Governor of all time. He is probably most famous for his observation that the central bank’s role was to “take away the punch bowl just when the party is getting started.” In contrast, Bernanke’s Fed is acting like teenage boys on prom night: spiking the punch, handing out free drinks, hoping to get lucky, and encouraging everyone to view the market through beer goggles. [Emphasis mine]
The paper goes into depth on the effects of financial repression on investments, which grow the longer the repression lasts, up to twenty years. Does the phrase: “… for an extended period” ring a bell? How about QE1, QE2, QE3, and now QE-infinity?
Tom Barrack of Colony Capital on what’s really happening in US real estate from an investor’s perspective. The clearest, most cogent look at the state of commercial, multifamily and single family markets today and where the opportunities are. The first five and a half minutes is about Europe and the bottom line there is don’t but after that it is all gold. If Tom wanted to be one of those real estate ‘gurus’ he could package this video with a big notebook and some advertising and sell it for $10,000- and it would be better than any of the other stuff out there. And you get it for free. I’ve watched three times and get an extra little nugget each time.
Joe Chaplik at Joseph Bernard Investment Real Estate sent me a summary of apartment building investment transactions for Q3 in the Portland area and surrounding counties:
Transactions in Q3: 39, including 27 in Multnomah County (Portland is the County seat)
Transactions YTD: 114, averaging 38 per quarter.
Total transaction volume Q3: $164,115,807
Total units in Q3 transactions: 1,385
Average price per unit Q3 in Multnomah Co: $100,794; up 49% from year ago.
Q3 average cap rate: 6.32, up from 6.24 last quarter.
80% of the transactions in Q3 were properties with less than 50 units.
Axiometrics was out with their National Monthly Apartment Trends report which includes a couple of cool charts, one is a map of their top 88 markets coded by rent growth (below). The one that caught my eye though was showing Occupancy, Effective Rents and Revenues:
Research out from CBRE Econometric Advisors shows that the typical risk-free benchmark rate, the 10 year Treasury, does not accurately reflect the cost of capital risks in asset pricing for commercial real estate. The whole yield curve or ‘term structure’ should be used instead. Highlights from their report:
Our research shows that it is not a single risk-free rate that drives asset pricing, but rather the entire term structure of interest rates (also referred to as the shape of the yield curve; we use these terms interchangeably). This term structure effect is so strong that relying upon a single benchmark rate in one’s analysis (as is typically done by analysts and investors) is inappropriate. We will demonstrate this below, using our empirical model of cap rates.
M&M covers 39 major apartment building investment markets in the US and have just published their Q3 reports. Here’s a list of the metros they cover:
They also provide snapshots of the Office, Industrial, Retail and Self-storage sectors in many of those markets, accessible from the tabs on the page. Note this information requires registration at the website to view.
In a piece just out today from Reis Reports says that: “We have seen declining cap rates fueled by a variety of key factors such as declining interest rates, risk-aversion in the wake of the recession with investors training their sights on what they perceive to be a less-risky property type, and the improvement in property fundamentals, especially in the apartment sector.”
But: “With the sale of high-quality assets dominating the marketplace, this has fueled the ongoing disconnect in pricing between buyers and sellers, preventing many assets that are not of the highest quality from trading. With sellers taking their cues from current market statistics, they are being relatively aggressive regarding the prices that they are willing to accept to consummate a transaction. However, frustrated buyers feel that many assets should not command the same premium that the highest-quality assets currently command in the market and consequently buyers are unwilling to pay such vertiginous prices.”
From Serguei Chervachidze, Capital Markets Economist at CBRE Econometrics: “What’s the long-term spread between cap rates and Treasurys?” This question, with a few variations, comes from all types of clients—from small investment shops to large hedge funds staffed with many quants.