Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) — Construction of multifamily units will lead the U.S. building industry again this year, allowing housing to contribute to growth for the first time in seven years, according to economists Michelle Meyer and Celia Chen.
Work will begin on about 260k apartment buildings and townhouse developments in 2012, up 45% from last year and the most since ’08, according to Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. Chen, an economist at Moody’s projects a record 74% jump to 310k.
Homeownership rates, which have declined to the lowest levels since ’98, may keep dropping as the foreclosure crisis turns more Americans into renters. In addition, household formation will probably accelerate as an improving economy and growing employment embolden more people to stop sharing residences and strike out on their own.
“Given the ongoing shift from owning to renting, there is increasing demand for multifamily construction,” Meyer said in an interview. See the whole Bloomberg piece here: Foreclosures are transitioning people out of ownership
A recent report from New York–based commercial real estate research firm Real Capital Analytics (RCA) reveals that apartment sales figures closed out 2011 on a positive note. The firm’s “2011 Year in Review” report shows that the fourth quarter of 2011 netted $16.6 billion in sales, the highest quarterly volume racked up since 2007. This marks a 16 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 24 percent bump from fourth-quarter apartment sales in 2010. Among the more optimistic data revealed in the report was the rebound of garden-sector sales.
Garden properties ended up 47 percent ahead of the 2010 figures, and it appears that the sales momentum experienced in the fourth quarter will carry over into the first quarter this year. “Given the stable cap rate environment for garden properties, compared to sinking caps in mid-/high-rise, that trend is likely to continue in 2012,” projects Thypin.
See the whole AHF article here: Apartment Sales Close Out 2011 on the Rise
Zero interest rates and apartment building investment.
First my condolences to Bill Gross on the loss of his brother-in-law. Reading his piece in PIMCO’s latest Investment Outlook it is clear that the world’s biggest bond manager is running out of places to generate returns for their investors and by extension this applies to all income investors, especially retired people trying to live on interest income. For those would like to retire soon you may have to delay that decision for “an extended period’ as Edward Harrison over at Credit Writedowns put it in Permanent Zero and Personal Interest Income.
Gross’ points out that the Fed’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) which they have just announced to maintain through 2014 and their defacto though opaque continuation of quantitative easing (QE2.5 as he tweeted it) threaten to take us into another dimension where their policies have the opposite effect of their intentions.
“Much like the laws of physics change from the world of Newtonian large objects to the world of quantum Einsteinian dynamics, so too might low interest rates at the zero-bound reorient previously held models that justified the stimulative effects of lower and lower yields on asset prices and the real economy.” – Bill Gross
His bullet points:
- Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside.
- Most short to intermediate Treasury yields are dangerously close to the zero-bound which imply limited potential room, if any, for price appreciation.
- We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration.
For more views on this and Europe too see also Entering the Debt Dimension from Phil’s Picks on the Phil’s Stock World Blog.
What does this mean for Multifamily?
The Zirp Dimension leads to Stagflation where economic growth remains anemic yet prices on essential Continue reading Zero Bound Interest Rates, The Zirp Dimension, Stagflation and #Multifamily
A common theme adopted by the industry is that lenders continue to delay action on distressed assets for as long as possible.
The fact is that this scenario is borrower-specific. If a borrower is acting in good faith, the lender may allow the asset to continue operating, resulting in a commercial property “Twilight Zone.”
The Twilight Zone is made up of properties on which loans have defaulted or in which default is likely imminent, but the borrower is still willing to provide all available cash flow to the lender, even if it is not enough to cover the payments. The lender agrees to accept net rents and, in turn, keeps the building operational, albeit in a limbo period.
When the lender does finally pull the plug value opportunities can Continue reading The #Multifamily Asset Twilight Zone: In default but payments still being made. Opportunity or? Via @rshall03
Nice article in MHN Online, good tips and reminders. There are still plenty of properties worth less than the debt, and there are more foreclosures to come. Most of the distressed multifamily properties are B, C and D class properties. These properties can provide great returns with cap rates from 8 percent to 12 percent on existing income, and in most cases have plenty of vacancy for even more upside.
My top two that apply to all properties distressed or otherwise:
Good management: Distressed B, C and D properties require experienced and diligent asset and property management. Your management team should be top notch. Your turnaround plan should be realistic and properly implemented.
Talented leasing staff: Your leasing team should be properly motivated and for lease marketing extremely thorough. You want a well-thought-out, multi-disciplined lease up plan to stabilize properties in this cycle.
See the article here: http://bit.ly/xW6fZp
Housington Investment Management runs about $4B in fixed income institutional money so they pay very close attention to the economy, government as well as fiscal and monetary policy. In fact Dr. Lacy Hunt, co-author of the report, is one of Mauldin’s most highly regarded economists. Here’s the exec sum (see the whole article at http://bit.ly/wM9DIY):
High Debt Leads to Recession
As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt to GDP ratio stands near 100% (Chart 1). Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter was an estimated $15.3 trillion, approximately equal to debt outstanding by the federal government. In an exhaustive historical study of high debt level economies around the world, (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639 of January 2010, Growth in the Time of Debt), Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart [Again with those two!] econometrically demonstrated that when a country’s gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, “the median growth rates fall by one percent, and Continue reading Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook “Recession in 2012”.
For value investors, Demand, Supply and the Cost of Acquisition are the three factors affecting the apartment building investment decision and all are saying the time to buy is now. There is a tidal wave of new renters coming into the market and there has been little apartment construction to meet this growing demand. Outside of the gateway cities the prices of existing apartment buildings remain below the cost of building new. Fixed rate financing is available for apartment buildings at rates lower than we will see again for years if not decades.
“The multifamily sector is probably the only commercial real estate sector that has very positive fundamentals behind it,” said Jeffrey Baker, managing director at Savills LLC, a real estate investment bank that raises capital for multifamily owners and developers. “You’ve got a demographic that is producing more households that want to rent an apartment. You’ve got virtually no new supply that’s been added over the last several years.”1 Continue reading The Apartment Building Investment Triple Opportunity Is Right Now
I believe that apartment building investment should be a core holding for every successful conservative investor. Briefly here are the top ten reasons for low risk investors:
1. Monthly Income. Properly acquired apartments generate monthly checks in 6-8% or higher annual cash on cash returns.
2. Straight forward, conservative investment strategy. Buying existing apartment buildings with good due diligence means that you know what you’re getting going into the investment. Apartments are not subject to sudden changes in investor sentiment and/or valuations.
3. The numbers determine the value. Apartments are valued based on rents less expenses (Net Operating Income) and increases in rents can go straight to the bottom line increasing the value.
4. Inflation protection. Rents rise with inflation and with 12 month leases every year there is the opportunity to adjust rates. With fixed rate financing your income goes up while your biggest cost stays the same. Continue reading Top Ten Reasons To Own Apartments Now
At the end of last year (See my Dec. 28 post Why buy Multifamily in ’09) I laid out a number of factors pointing to the opportunity to secure good returns on income producing apartments this year. As time marches on we are receiving more corroborating evidence of a market bottom for multifamily at the same time as the credit market for these properties still has money available for acquisitions.
From a diverse range of reports starting with the ULI/PricewaterhouseCooper’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009, Real Capital’s report published mid-Feb to Marcus & Millichap’s conference call last week (Feb. 24th) we are seeing a real buyers market develop in multifamily.
First of all multifamily starts are projected to be down at least 30% this year on top of being down 50% in ’08, meaning starts are down 85% from two years ago. Balanced against this lack of supply is the fact that Census Bureau projections show the growth in the prime renter segment of the population (20-34 year olds)will accelerate significantly over the next five years forcing rents higher over that period. There will also be a steady if not growing stream of immigrants who tend to long term renters. Continue reading More Positive Indications for Multifamily
As I sit here looking out at the snow while I’m taking time to review and update my goals for the year there are stars aligning to make the new year a positive one. Especially if you are looking for alternatives for your investment and retirement money. The stock market hasn’t been good to us (I look at my account statement from between my fingers!) and the prognosis for the next year or two isn’t much better.
In contrast there are a number of reasons to consider owning multifamily properties, specifically apartment complexes with more than 100 units. Before I go into the reasons why now is a good time let me first be clear about what I’m NOT recommending, the landlording business. The reason to focus on properties with more than 100 units is that they are large enough to support both professional management and professional maintenance; most likely having both onsite full time if not living there. As an owner of this type of property your job is to review the management reports and manage the managers, not unclog toilets or take phone calls from tenants. Continue reading Why buy Multifamily in ’09?