Woo-hoo We’re All Gonna… Have More Expensive Apartment Loan Rates

The apartment investment loan we track has jumped up five times in a month, the most change it’s had since the Taper Tantrum in 2013. From the low of 4.125% the week before the election it is now up to 4.75% as of yesterday. With the Fed due to Continue reading Woo-hoo We’re All Gonna… Have More Expensive Apartment Loan Rates

So That Happened, Then This Happened- Apartment Loan Rates Jump with T10

And we’re off to the races apparently. The day after the surprising election results the US Treasury 10 year jumped 19 basis points blowing through the 2% level to close that day at 2.07%. You would have to Continue reading So That Happened, Then This Happened- Apartment Loan Rates Jump with T10

Apartment Investment Sales Fall Below 50 in Latest NMHC Quarterly Survey

The latest National Multifamily Housing Council Apartment Conditions Quarterly shows the average fell 15 points to 35, dragged down by Sales Volume dropping to 42 from 50 and the more volatile Debt Financing which descended to 38 from 62. Market Tightness (occupancy & rent growth) and Equity Financing Continue reading Apartment Investment Sales Fall Below 50 in Latest NMHC Quarterly Survey

#Multifamily Loan Rates Find New Lower Floor

Apartment Building Investment Loan sets lower floor for rate.
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Both the 10yr and 15yr apartment building investment loan rates we track fell to lows not seen but for just one week last year and they’ve remained there for five weeks. The 10yr rate dropped 13 basis points to 4.25% and has stayed there since Sept. 14. Likewise the 15yr loan (see below for details on the loans we track) also fell 13bp to 4.375% where it has remained from the middle of September on.

Outside of that one single week last year when Continue reading #Multifamily Loan Rates Find New Lower Floor

Fed Chair Yellen- Maybe we are turning Japanese

Actual and Expected Inflation in Japan
“Here, Japan’s recent history may be instructive: As shown in figure 9, survey measures of longer-term expected inflation in that country remained positive and stable even as that country experienced many years of persistent, mild deflation.” – Janet Yellen Sep. 24, 2015

Was talking about this just last week (again):

As a value guy like you it’s hard to figure out how buying something in the sixes on cap rate works out to be a good deal. But what if the Fed is trapped at the Zero Lower Bound and we are turning Japanese? Their ‘Lost Decade’ is now old enough to graduate with a Master’s degree and we’re following the exact same playbook. I offer last week’s Fed decision as exhibit #1. They would dearly love to raise rates just to prove they can but there’s just thin ice between us and

Continue reading Fed Chair Yellen- Maybe we are turning Japanese

Apartment & CRE Lending Today- great charts from MPF Research

Apartment Building Investment and Commercial Real Estate Lending Today
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Great set of charts on apartment building investment loans vs. CRE and development lending. If recency bias has you thinking bubble check in with the demographics which show millennials are the largest population group in the country and 30% of them are still in their parents’ basement. As they unbundle they’ll be looking for apartments but they’ll be competing with a lot of empty nest boomers too. Demographics is destiny.

10yr Apartment Building Loan Rate Back On It’s Meds at 4.375%

10 year apartment building investment loan rates
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After showing signs of life in June and July the 10yr apartment building investment loan rate we track seems to be fully anesthetized once again and is resting comfortably at 4.375%. Meanwhile the ULI rate seemed to be steadily working its way lower, following the ten year Treasury down which got as low as 2.01%. That all ended with the Chinese stock market melt down and currency devaluation a couple weeks ago and drove the ULI rate up 27bp to 3.82%.

Chinese stock market has only fallen back to where it was in February
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Interestingly despite all the panic about the Continue reading 10yr Apartment Building Loan Rate Back On It’s Meds at 4.375%

The Nick Hanauer Problem: Why the recovery is going so slowly.

Changes in Mean and Median Net Worth.
Changes in Mean and Median Net Worth.

Invictus over at the Big Picture Blog had a chart rich article last month called “Bill Gates walks out of a bar – Of Means & Medians” that explored some of the causes for the slow economic recovery in the US.

What really caught my attention was how skewed the distribution of wealth is with the mean (aka the ‘average’) being 6.5X the median* (50% above, 50% below). How do we keep the peasants from revolting in these conditions? Or more realistically because 90% of us are not in the top 10% why do we not revolt?

With the Mean Net Worth 6.5x larger than the Median, the distribution in very skewed.
With the Mean Net Worth 6.5x higher than the Median, the distribution in very skewed.

This means that the economy is suffering from the Nick Hanauer problem; the wealthy aren’t Continue reading The Nick Hanauer Problem: Why the recovery is going so slowly.

Apartment Financing Hits An Air Pocket in Latest NMHC Survey

Apartment Building Investment Lending Conditions July 2015

The National Multifamily Housing Council’s NMHC Quarterly Survey is out now and three of the four categories held fairly steady but the availability of  debt financing dropped twenty five points from sixty to thirty five. A reading below fifty indicates worsening conditions and the report on the survey said that with Continue reading Apartment Financing Hits An Air Pocket in Latest NMHC Survey