Job growth vs. revenue growth chart of top apartment building investment markets in the US- updated.

Back in February we posted an Axiometrics chart plotting the revenue growth vs. job growth in leading apartment investment markets in the US. They were out last week with an updated chart but not just in the way we might think since the numbers are Axiometrics’ 2013 forecasts for revenue and job growth updated through May this year. To me the real ‘update’ is that they reversed the axises on the chart and I think it makes more sense laid out this way:

Job Growth and Rent Growth for Apartment Building Investment
Click for full size image. Source: Axiometrics

Before I get sidetracked onto a long discussion on the importance of understanding just Continue reading Job growth vs. revenue growth chart of top apartment building investment markets in the US- updated.

The ‘Twin Peaks’ of Seattle Apartment Building Investment Plus MPF Research says rent growth holding strong there.

Friday twofer on Seattle. First is Dupre+Scott’s  entertaining and enlightening video on apartment building construction and property sales:

Mike has two nice charts showing apartment development numbers back to 1988 and sales volume back to 1981. Note that on the sales volume chart 2013 numbers are Continue reading The ‘Twin Peaks’ of Seattle Apartment Building Investment Plus MPF Research says rent growth holding strong there.

Who is buying all those properties and what does it mean for the apartment building investment cycle?

Mark Hickey of CoStar put out a piece looking at who was responsible for the near record $65.8B of apartment building investment in 2012. CoStar’s numbers show that private owners/developers did just about half of all acquisitions last year and institutions were in for 12%, both near their recent trends. REITs on the other hand increased their share by a third, responsible for 12% of sales volume last year.

Interestingly the sellers were pretty much the same groups, except REITs who were the largest net buyers last year.

Apartment Building Investment by REITs 2004 to 2012

Last year REITs raised 15x the equity they did in 2008 (and 20x the total capital). Up against pockets that deep Continue reading Who is buying all those properties and what does it mean for the apartment building investment cycle?

Local Apartment Building Investment Research Reports For 37 US Cities Now Posted by Marcus & Millichap

Requires (free) registration: M&M Research

Here’s a peek at their Phoenix Charts:

Phoenix Apartment Building Rent Trends Q2 2013

Phoenix Apartment Building Vacancy Q2 2013

Phoenix Apartment Building Construction Q2 2013 Continue reading Local Apartment Building Investment Research Reports For 37 US Cities Now Posted by Marcus & Millichap

Apartment Building Replacement Costs Rising: lumber back to housing boom highs, growing labor shortages.

The NAHB has a piece out called Producer Prices in March – Building Materials Prices Approaching Housing Boom Highs talking about how far gypsum (main ingredient in drywall +18%), softwood lumber (2x4s, 2x6s, etc. +30%) and chipboard (oriented strand board and waferboard which have replaced plywood, joists and beams in many applications +68%) prices have risen in the last year, the chart tells the story:

Apartment Building Material Prices 2012 to Mar 2013
Click on chart for full size image.

Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk has a piece showing the longer term price history for Random Length Lumber (2x4s only, both cash and futures) and a link to a pretty depressing Vancouver Sun article on pine beetle devastation in BC (Spoiler alert: the Continue reading Apartment Building Replacement Costs Rising: lumber back to housing boom highs, growing labor shortages.

ULI Biz Barometer: Apartment building invesment sales vaulted last month, bouyed otherwise sagging #CRE sector.

The Urban Land Institute’s April Real Estate Business Barometer reports that apartment building investment sales were strong enough to pull the entire sector up from last month’s slump while CRE prices are at four year highs.  Condominium sales are also at a 5-1/2 year high with strongly increasing prices.

Apartment Building Investment and Commercial Property Sales April 2013

“Overall, 65 percent of the key Continue reading ULI Biz Barometer: Apartment building invesment sales vaulted last month, bouyed otherwise sagging #CRE sector.

CBRE Research: Since 2010 population shifting towards urban but apartment building construction is outpacing growth in

… A number of major metros

CBRE Econometrics is out with a new report showing population growth trends in major US metros has shifted towards urban centers since 2010 but apartment building investors have been keeping pace (or exceeding it) with new construction.  Author Gleb Nechayev, Senior Managing Economist lays it out nicely in a series of charts:

First Population Growth Average Change 2000- 2010

Population Growth in major Apartment Markets 2000 t0 2010
source: CBRE Econometrics

Raleigh is the only metro with significant urban vs. suburban population growth. Note that one-county metros such as Continue reading CBRE Research: Since 2010 population shifting towards urban but apartment building construction is outpacing growth in

Latest Commercial RE and Apartment Building Investment Cycle Charts Posted by Glenn Mueller PhD.

…. “Only six markets advanced their position on the [Dividend Capital Apartment Market] cycle chart.” Once again with the notable exception of Seattle who has left in the basement of the cycle despite overwhelming evidence that it has moved well up in the cycle by his own definition. See my post from last quarter detailing the definitions and why Seattle’s apartment building investment cycle location according to Dr. Mueller is incorrect here. For other cities have a look and let me know if your markets are accurately placed:

Apartment Building Investmet Cycle Chart Q4 2012

Is it a Seattle thing? Is he the Brent Musburger of commercial real estate? Continue reading Latest Commercial RE and Apartment Building Investment Cycle Charts Posted by Glenn Mueller PhD.

The Recession Probability Chart, A New Coincident Indicator?

Quick link to a very interesting chart Bill McBride put up over at Calculated Risk:

Chance of Recession?
Source: FRED. Note: We added the red and green lines (at 80 and 20 on chart) to highlight points made in the article.

 

The chart is from the St. Louis Fed’s Fred database which I’ve highlighted and you can find the original here.  According to U of O Professor Jeremy Piger: “Historically, three consecutive Continue reading The Recession Probability Chart, A New Coincident Indicator?

Apartment Building Permits Rise to Long-term Average while Vacancy Index Remains Low

In their latest apartment building permitting report Axiometrics says: “permitting increased 44.3% or 84,308 units from the January 2012 figure of 274,640 units.” This is very near the long term average of 280,000 units, see the chart:

Apartment Building Investment New Construction Permits

Note that single family permits are still Continue reading Apartment Building Permits Rise to Long-term Average while Vacancy Index Remains Low